Thursday, June 23, 2005

Retirement Planning Calculator, Tables

Max spending per $100K assuming 5% inflation-adjusted return
Needed income assumed 30K/year




Years Max Withrawal Savings needed
528200106K
1014069213K
1510102297K
208274363K
257246414K
306604455K
356175486K
9995000600K


Recently I've been mildly obsessed about retiring (early, very early) or at least, achieving financial independence (=you don't have to work anymore to sustain your lifestyle). I am a stong believer in living below your means as a tradeoff for freedom.
Anyhow, how much money do I need? I assume 10% average return on investement (average stock market returns have been 10.7% in the last 50 years or so). I also assume 3.5% inflation, so that's 6.5%. then you have to take out taxes, such as capital gains. Great. but it isn't so bad, if you plan on spending 30K/year - since part of the money is capital, only part of it is considered income. In some scenarios I ran, that was a 15K income, which would mostly be covered by standard deduction. SO I use 6% as net returns.This means that I believe on average 6% would be my return.
However, most of us don't care about averages - 50% of the time we'll be below average (umm, kinda). To achieve 90% complex analysis of market ups and down, I calculated a return of 4% should be assumed; 5% would give you an 80% chance - fail enough.
The last question is - how long do I plan to live? so here goes - the table below shows, for each number of years, what's your max withrawal per $100K. Obviously you can withraw more than the interest unless you plan to live forever - but how much more?

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