Assuming a Benevolent Universe

I recently read a (fictional) book (title omitted to prevent inadvertant spoiler) - where the protagonist, beset by crumbling personal relationships, becomes semi-obsessed with locating a missing girl. At some point, the searche for the girl is discontinued, but he entertains the thought of offering his help to the father of the missing girl. He is not sure whether his help will be accepted but eventually he offers and...

.. he is kidnapped by the father who assumes that the person who contacted him is his girls' kidnapper.

What surprised me when I read this story is that this turn of event took me wholly by surprise. Objectively, one would expect a person showing excessive interest to be a suspect, possibly to get in some trouble. And yet, since the author skillfully did not hint at that direction, I (and assumingly, other readers), divorced that thought off the realm of relevance. 

Very often in life, relations, or work, we expect the universe to be fair or benevolent. Being penalized for trying to help is patently unfair - but it was a possible result of the behavior of the protagonist, a consequence he did not consider or prepare for.  It is not that we should change our moral compass to accept those outcomes, but we should change our expectations to steel ourselves for the inevitable occasions when no good deed goes unpunished. 

Mindmaps ARE trees!

Mind maps are a useful tool to organize thoughts, options, and ideas - Wikipedia.mindmap
The idea is to draw a circle with the central idea, and multiple spokes as the sub ideas, and continuie (see picture above).  My not surprising observation is that mind-maps are simply trees. So if you don't need the spatial fairness (there is no first element, last element, etc), a simple equivalent is the layers bulletpoint:
Idea
- sub idea 1
- -  sub sub idea 1.1
- sub idea 2

The beauty of this observation is that is lets you 'draw' mind maps in email, or on a text editor, without fancy graphical tools.

Lottery Winners, Hedonic Treadmill, and Financial Planning

It is believed that people return to their basic 'happiness' level despite sudden changes in their environment.
That is, winning the lottery will not keep you happy for long.
OK. So, that made me think. If we derive pleasure/happiness, in a large part, not from the absolute value of our situation (e.g. disposable income) but from the change thereof, we should plan our lives to be continously improving. It also makes life into one obscure differential equation.
If this theory is correct, then we should prefer an income of 30k at the age of 30 and an income of 50k at the age of 50, rather than a constant income of 40k throughout. (assume numbers are inflation-adjusted). The first scenario will include many opportunities for promotions and achievements, and many opportunities to improve your standard of living. The second will not. In that regard, lawyers (who make more as they gain experience) may be better off than technologists (who generally do not past some point).
From a financial planning point of view, this may indicate that a good retirement financial plan should not assume only cost-of-living adjustment but a real increase in retirement income (at least, when possible) even at the expense of a slightly lower initial expense or slightly delayed retirement. Interesting.

The great razor-life test

Our dedicated lab rat (me) is trying out two theories to enhance the life of razor blades.

Why?
I use a new razor blade a week, or my skin begins to complain. At $2.5/blah this is a $125 a year, or $4000 over the next 40 years. And it is clear Gillette want to sell more, not less, razors...

The Theories
Searching the web, the two 'life extension' theories that stood the Test of Duh were
- 1# Leaving razor blades in petroleum gel between uses may reduce moisture and blade deterioration
- 2# Applying alcohol-based gel hand sanitizer before use will reduce hair accumulation on the blade (and reduce damage) and also instant-treat any micro-cuts, resulting in a usable shave for longer
OR
- 3# Nothing helps

The Test
No way to use a double-blind test; my second-bet approach was:
1. For one week, use #1, #2, or #3 on right cheek
2. Report smoothness/microcuts at the end of the week
3. Use a different combo on left cheek
4. Ensure each theory is attempted on both left and right cheek


The test is already in progress.... final report due next week. Which theory do you believe in?

The best DIY energy drink known to Men - EnerT

We all work out, we all need re-hydration, we all buy Gatorade... wait, stop. EnerT, this simple do it yourself tea-based energy drink, may be a better (and cheaper) option.

An energy drink needs sugar (of some form), electrolytes (mostly sodium and potassium) to accelerate absorption, and may contain other ingredients. I opted for tea as caffeine has a beneficial workout benefit, and tea provides a low-level caffeine, striking my personally preferred balanced between 'waking' and 'wired'. Any level of sugars under 8% is acceptable, but I find Gatorade to be overly caloric for those of us trying to balance increased workout performance with weight loss/maintenance.

[Note: Initial idea inspired by similar energy drink I found on the Diet Everywhere site ]

EnerT Ingredients (32 oz or about 1 liter):
2 Tea Bags
6 level teaspoon sugar (24 grams)
A pinch of salt (0.5 grams)
2 oz lemon juice (about 55 grams)
30 oz boiling water

Contains:
100 calories
500 mg Sodium
60mg of Potassium (from the lemon juice)
Caffeine varies, est 100mg-200mg caffeine (depending on the tea used and infusion duration)

Estimated Cost:
Lemon juice: $0.10
2 Tea Bags: $0.06
Sugar, Salt, water, etc: negligible

Compare to 32 oz Gatorade:
200 calories
440mg Sodium
120mg Potassium
No caffeine
Cost: $1.29

I use a lower potassium level as research indicates that Potassium loss is secondary to Sodium loss in hydration. You can add more lemon juice in, up to 4oz - if flavor allows. On the other hand, removing the lemon juice will still yield a good energy drink, but will reduce price by 66%

References:
http://www.medicdirectsport.com/sportsnutrition/default.asp?step=4&pid=81
http://www.nutritiondata.com/facts-C00001-01c20VH.html

Added per the huge amount of interest and questions:
Q: So, is this different from a regular tea?
A: Yes, but only subtly so. The quantity of salt and sugar, and lemon juice (for Potassium) are specifically set for easy absorption. But mostly, energy drinks ARE flavored sugar water. Gatorade is water, sugar, sodium, potassium, and flavor.

Being risk averse

I saw this post on chaostheory and it really made me think - how risk averse are people in general (and me in particular?)

I think trading $1000 for 60% chance of $2000 might make sense, but trading $1000 for 0.06% for $2,000,000 does not, for me. There are two ways to look at this:

1. Expected resulting satisfaction: I will be happy if I win the 2 million, of course. but not a thausand times more. and most likely I'll be disappointed. If I try this 100 times, I will quickly 'learn' that this is too much frustration and not enough (or any) gain

2. Declining value of money: The value of the $10,000 between $100,000 and $110,000 me is quite high, as it would affect my investment.
The value of the difference between $1,000,000 and $1,010,000 is low. Therefore, the value of a dollar is a function of how much I already have, nd declines with wealth (duh?). So $1,000,000 does not really offer twice as much benefit as $500,000 do, just as ten Mars bars do not offer ten times as much benefit as one bar.

Fallacies - How arguments lie

this webpage discusses a classification of fallacies. While I don't care how you classify them, the list of fallacies (or misleading ways of arguing) is very helpful.
My favorites:
Ad hominem - we use this one all the time. While an interested party may make biased *decisions*, his logic should stand (or fall) on its own merits.
and
black&white thinking - all or nothing thinging.

I highly recomend you read the website above - and I know you trust my judgement

Tags:Opinions Philosophy Logic

Job choice is like the stock market

Look what I found here:
I thought education and career are like stock exchange, you should always buy low and sell high, but most people tend to buy high and sell low.

Wedding Bills

"Maybe there's a good reason that so many people shed a tear or two at weddings while the rest bear a grin of pure schadenfreude. The average cost of a traditional wedding in the U.S. is now up to $25,000" says the Christian Science Monitor.

Link brought to my attention on Plastic.com

MCSE certification hurts salary? really?

This blog post discusses how MCSE holders aherage $10K less than people who hold no certification. "The title is a little misleading, but this article is a pretty interesting read."

Actually, statistical analysis shows that those numbers mean little for the person trying to decide whether to get certified. It stands to reason that people who feel the need to get MCSE are less credentialed (or otherwise less successful) than those who do not - no-one who was just promoted to a development manager, for example, would have the time or inclination for a resume-building effort. It is those who did not get the promotion/job/assignments they wanted who will. And those are just the people who would be paid less.
Yet, stands to reason isn't statistics, and reason is often wrong. My take? inconclusive. an interesting double blind would be to have half of a group (randomly chosen) get certified, and the other half not, revisit them in 2 years and see their salary delta. Double blind? not quite, but almost. Is this experiment going to happen? I thinketh not.

Prisoner Dilemma: Tit for Tat or Suicide Bombing?

As described in this article, the latest prisoner dilemma competition (game theory is very cool) was won not by the usually 'tit for tat' algorithm ("be nice, fair, but tough") but by a "identify your friends, collude with them, walk over everyone else" system.

This shows that, in this game theory problem at least, there is a balance and there are weaknesses. Overly-altruistic (say-civilized) are vulnerable to overly aggressive approaches; as the number of aggressors increases, cooperation gives a competitive advantage, turning the tide.

Also read this plastic article

Firecalc and retirement

using firecalc, a tool that calculates the probability of being able to withraw a specific pension from fixed savings based on past stock market behavior, I got the following:
assuming a desired withdrawal of 30K, the probability per initial investment is:
700k - 89%
650k - 78%
600k - 72%
550k - 56%
500k - 51%

How much is your time worth?

This article states you should look at the value of your time; spending a lot of time today to save $10 does not make sense - because an hour today is worth 3 when you're retired; so you'd better use said time now.
The suggestion? decide on a value for your time (maybe based on your after-tax hourly wage) and use it to make decisions.

Tags: time tagtag

Salary Analysis - US software developers

using this data, across all industries, using median salary:

US: $75,000.00
Greencard holders: $87,000.00
[possible explanation: imported programmers are more talented than average since mostly very talented programmers are imported]
Greencard holders 10-15 years of experience: $91,000.00

By experience years:
0-2 : $50,000.00
3-5 : $60,000.00
6-10 : $80,000.00
10-15: $85,000.00

Software consulting rates - US

Below is a breakdown and analysis of consulting rates based on this rate statistics page, for industry=Computer-software:

Median Rate: $63.50 [134 responses]
By experience years:
0-2 : Median Rate: $45.00 [43 responses]
3-5 : Median Rate: $52.00 [16 responses]
6-10 : Median Rate: $65.00 [419 responses]
11-15: Median Rate: $75.00 [33 responses]

Median Broker Cut (for the ~45% who use brokers) by experience:
3 - 29% | 6 - 27% | 10 - 21%

Quit your job? why should you?

This freshmeat article suggests that better programmers don't get equivalently better compensation. I guess the lesson of this is - if you are much, much better than average, you should work hard to get a better deal, since no-one will hand one to you.

How to be a millionaire?

Beats me. But this guy offers some advice.

Are US salaries headed down?

This Blog claims average wages in the US are going down. good read. One thing to notice is that the rely on the same source of data - BLS - that I referred to in my post about salaries of software engineers.

Software Engineer Salaries: Average

Based on the gov data: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Using employment code 15-1031:Computer software engineers, applications [2004]

Area: Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA PMSA
Total Employees: 14480
Mean Income: 82900
Median Income: 79790
75% percentile: 97150
90% percentile: 115360

Tags:
software Programmers Salary

Poverty isn't widespread?

Poverty is widespread, right? umm, no.
according to this goveronment analysis of how many people stayed in poverty for 4 years, we see that only 2.0% of the population stayed in what the govronment defines as 'poverty' for the entire period, as opposed to much higher numbers (12%) of poverty statistics for 'poverty per month'. But being poor for a month just means low income for the period, it does not prove impossible hardship.

Now let's examine the impact of life choices on poverty. Seems obvious that bad choices do, and should, lead to bad outcomes. So lets look at this table once more - among highschool graduates, a sustained 'poverty' goes down to 1.5%, and to 0.5% among people with one or more years of college.
Similarly, without work disability, sustained poverty level go down to 0.9%; since we do not expect the gov. to keep disabled people on the same standard of living as working people (that would be discouraging to working people), that is an important number. The number also goes down to 0.5% to 0.7% (with kids) in married couples.
Also it is 0.1% among 'employed fulltime' and 0.5% among 'employed parttime'.

I extrapolate a 0.1% or lower sustained poverty numbers for people who: graduated highschool, attempt to get a job, and don't choose to raise kids alone (or don't choose to have kids at the age of 25 or lower).